Tokyo 'has 70% chance of powerful earthquake within four years'

Experts in Japan have warned that the chances of a powerful earthquake striking Tokyo in the next four years could be as high as 70%, a more alarming scenario for the city's 13 million people than predicted by the government.

The earthquake research institute at Tokyo University said that in the worst case, a quake of magnitude 7 would hit the southern part of metropolitan Tokyo by 2016, while the chances of a similar disaster occurring within 30 years are as high as 98%.

The government, by contrast, estimates the possibility of an earthquake that size striking the capital at 70% in the next three decades.

The warning comes less than a year after a magnitude-9 earthquake off the country's north-east coast triggered a tsunami that left about 23,000 people dead or missing.

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